Kestrel is a $39.2M Discovery-stage gold micro-cap holding a Côte d'Ivoire asset, with roughly 3.0 quarters of funding. That makes it the shortest-funded name across both its Australian and West African peer sets. It sits at the hinge of two very different capital markets, and its next raise should be framed accordingly.
Across the ASX gold field, a supply surge lifted quarterly deal counts from single digits in late 2024 to a sustained 88–96 through H2 2025, easing more recently. Gold-price strength has improved the sub-industry's median 90-day post-raise performance (DAP) from -13.5% to -2.8%, but the market is selective. A 12-month success rate near 51% shows it discriminating. Nearly half the universe is pre-development and roughly 46% of peers hold three quarters of funding or less, pointing to intense competition for early-stage capital over the next two to three quarters. At Kestrel's stage, pricing and aftermarket performance are tightly coupled to newsflow: raises that reprice on results hold up (+8.9% for Exploration deals); those without a catalyst go flat (-0.1% median for Discovery-stage).
Over the 90 days to 21 July 2026 both the Australian micro-cap field (~$17M–$70M) and the West African cohort (~$39M–$698M) de-rated in a broad sector sell-off, yet they raise capital very differently. Australian deals are small ($1M–$35M), deeply discounted (median ~-14%, some to -54.5%), thinly traded, and led by a scattered broker field with volatile aftermarkets. West African raisings are far larger ($25M–$126M), far more tightly priced (~-1% to -11%, one at a +25% premium), and led by a concentrated, high-quality book. Argonaut, Canaccord and Tamesis typically act together, all carrying 100% success rates and median DAPs of +27.5%, +22.2% and +40.3% respectively. Tighter discounts at larger size are the signature of a deeper, more institutional demand pool.
KTM's November-2025 placement, led by Argonaut and Taylor Collison at a -7.7% discount to market (roughly half the sub-industry median of -13.95%), returned +61.65% DAP at 90 days. That is far ahead of both the sub-industry and Discovery-stage medians, and Kestrel is the only West African name in positive territory over the quarter (+11.1%). KTM carries the jurisdiction and broker pedigree of the West African cohort but the size, liquidity and funding urgency of the Australian micro-caps.
Kestrel's demonstrated ability to price a raise well inside the peer discount, and hold it afterwards, is worth protecting. With runway the tightest in either peer set and a crowded pipeline forming, the board should raise ahead of the cohort rather than into it. Time the next raise to a defined resource or drilling catalyst, and market the deal on West African comparables and the associated bookrunner quality, not the cheaper, deeper-discounted domestic set.
Green = favourable · Amber = monitor closely · Red = unfavourable. Derived from Investair sector placement data, 4C/5B filings, and ASX substantial-shareholder notices.
| Metric | KTM | Sector peers* | vs 18m avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $39.2M | $8.2M–$86.0M | — |
| Cash runway (qtrs) | 2.98 | 18.97 avg | 16.28 avg |
| Last raise discount to market | -7.7% | -13.95% | — |
| 90-day price return | +11.1% | #3 of 26 (gold) | — |
| Post-raise 90d return (DAP) | +61.65% | +220.6% | — |
| Cash-burn queue rank | 8th of 30 | 7 shorter · 22 longer | — |
Peer discount and DAP return figures are medians across the recorded deal set after the $500k materiality floor (8 deals; 3 with matured 90-day DAP returns). KTM peer group = 30 peer companies plus KTM.
* Sector peers = ASX gold peers at a comparable stage of development (Discovery / Resource Definition).
DAP is the diluted adjusted price: the placement price adjusted for the dilution the raise itself creates. Every performance figure in this report is measured against DAP rather than the raw deal price, so a post-raise return reflects what an allottee actually earned on a diluted basis. KTM's November 2025 placement returned +61.65% at 90 days on a DAP basis, against +66.67% measured raw from the $0.180 deal price. The DAP figure is the one reported throughout, and this definition applies to every subsequent use of DAP in this report.
Capital runway by company across the eight-name West African gold cohort (indicative), in quarters. KTM (2.98 qtrs) is the shortest-funded name in the cohort, consistent with the 2.98 qtrs shown above, and sits well below the cohort latest average of 10.15 qtrs.
| Company | ASX | Market cap | Runway (qtrs) | vs cohort avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kestrel Minerals | KTM | $39.2M | 2.98 | -7.2 |
| Kanbara Gold | K1G | $592.2M | 5.11 | -5.0 |
| Mabeko Gold | MQK | $538.8M | 6.26 | -3.9 |
| High Ridge Minerals | HRM | $139.2M | 7.23 | -2.9 |
| Oduro Resources | ODR | $197.2M | 8.10 | -2.0 |
| Kouroma Resources | KMA | $277.9M | 14.28 | +4.1 |
| Oba Gold | OBG | $697.8M | 15.39 | +5.2 |
| Nkoso Resources | NK1 | $229.5M | 21.86 | +11.7 |
| West African cohort avg (latest) | 10.15 | 18m avg 11.15 |
Indicative only. Runway = estimated quarters of funding at current burn. West African cohort = KTM, K1G, ODR, HRM, MQK, KMA, OBG, NK1; cohort latest average 10.15 qtrs (18-month average 11.15). This cohort average is narrower than the 30-peer benchmark average of 18.97 qtrs used in the table above, as it covers only the West African gold set. 'vs cohort avg' = company runway minus 10.15 qtrs.
Three of four readiness signals are green. KTM has run 90-day price performance of +11.1%, ranking 3rd of 26 gold peers on a liquidity-adjusted basis, ahead of the great majority of the peer set, where 20 of 26 gold names posted negative 90-day returns. The sector placement window is open: a 70% success rate across 33 recorded deals over 18 months, and a Q2 2026 median discount of -2.2%, the narrowest of any discounted quarter in the series. The binding constraint is internal, not external: cash runway of 2.98 quarters against a peer average of 18.97 makes financing a near-term requirement rather than an option. KTM's own Nov 2025 raise priced at -7.7% to market, well inside the peer median of -13.95%. That raise, run by Argonaut Limited and Taylor Collison, returned +61.65% at 90 days on a DAP basis, comfortably ahead of the +16.2% median DAP return Argonaut has delivered across its rolling 12-month book (Section 05). KTM's own last transaction is therefore evidence that the story prices and holds.
Source: Section 01 cohort table. Indicative only. Dashed line = cohort latest average (10.15 qtrs).
Source: Sections 00, 01 and 05. Discount = nominal discount to last close. Returns on a DAP basis.
Four of five external signals read open: a 70% success rate across 33 recorded deals over 18 months, the narrowest discounted-quarter median in the series at -2.2%, four consecutive months of net institutional accumulation across the peer set, and KTM ranking 3rd of 26 gold peers on 90-day performance. The single closed signal is internal: cash runway of 2.98 quarters against a peer average of 18.97. The external window and the internal need point the same way: act while conditions hold.
| Signal | Status | Reading | Board implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sector ECM success rate | OPEN | 70% (18m, 33 deals) | Supportive placement climate |
| Median placement discount | OPEN | -2.2% | Most issuer-favourable quarter in series |
| Institutional SSH trend | OPEN | +3 net | 4th consecutive month of accumulation |
| KTM relative performance | OPEN | +11.1% | 3rd of 26; strongest liquidity in top six |
| KTM cash runway | CLOSED | 2.98 vs 18.97 qtrs | Financing is a near-term requirement |
70% success rate across 33 deals over 18 months; Q2 2026 median discount of -2.2%.
Four consecutive months of net accumulation across the peer set, cumulative +21.
+11.1% over 90 days, 3rd of 26 gold peers, where only 6 of 26 are positive.
2.98 quarters of funding against a peer average of 18.97 quarters.
This is the inverse of the usual problem. The external conditions a board would wait for are already in place: pricing is the tightest it has been in any discounted quarter of the eighteen-month record, institutional money has been accumulating across the peer group for four straight months, and KTM is outperforming a sector in which 20 of 26 gold peers are down over 90 days. What is not in place is time. At 2.98 quarters of runway against a peer average of 18.97, KTM has roughly nine months of funding, and the strength of the current window is the only variable in this report the board does not control. The practical implication is to convert the relative-performance story into a book while it is still current, and to select the broker on aftermarket evidence rather than on the headline discount; Section 05 shows the two are not the same thing. Only three deals in the current peer set have matured to a 90-day DAP return, so the aftermarket evidence available at this cycle is thin.
Six quarters of peer-set placement data, Q1 2025 through Q2 2026: deal volume, proceeds, success rates and median DAP returns across KTM's peer group.
| Quarter | Deals | Proceeds | Matured | Success rate | Median DAP return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 2 | $5.0M | 2 of 2 | 100% | +63.7% |
| Q2 2025 | 5 | $9.8M | 5 of 5 | 80% | +29.2% |
| Q3 2025 | 8 | $25.3M | 8 of 8 | 75% | +62.3% |
| Q4 2025 | 7 | $102.2M | 6 of 7 | 50% | -7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | 3 | $52.3M | 2 of 3 | 50% | +118.9% |
| Q2 2026 | 7 | $121.0M | 0 of 7 | pending | pending |
Success rate = share of matured deals with a positive 90-day DAP return. Q2 2026 deals have not yet reached 90 days and are excluded from success-rate and return calculations.
| Quarter | Median discount | Range (max to min) | Success rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | -15.3% | +66.7% to -33% | 100% | Wide dispersion (2 deals) |
| Q2 2025 | +17.7% | +43.8% to -7.7% | 80% | Premium pricing |
| Q3 2025 | -6.8% | +10.9% to -54.5% | 75% | Tight median; wide tail |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4% | +8.1% to -17.4% | 50% | Tight; range narrowing |
| Q1 2026 | -11.2% | -11.2% to -25.5% | 50% | Widening; all discounted |
| Q2 2026 | -2.2% | +11.1% to -17.3% | pending | Tightest discounted qtr |
Deal flow and proceeds have scaled sharply: from 2 deals and $5.0M in Q1 2025 to 7 deals and $121.0M in Q2 2026, with the last three quarters accounting for $275.5M of the $315.6M raised across the full period. Success rates have moderated from 100% and 80% in the first two quarters to 50% in each of the last two matured quarters, but the median DAP return in Q1 2026 of +118.9% is the strongest in the series, driven by a small matured sample of two. Median discounts have oscillated between a +17.7% premium in Q2 2025 and -11.2% in Q1 2026, before tightening to -2.2% in the current quarter. On the pricing axis alone, Q2 2026 is the most issuer-favourable discounted quarter in the eighteen-month record.
Source: Section 03 tables. Q2 2026 deals have not reached 90 days. Q1 2026 median return rests on two matured deals.
Eight placements recorded across KTM's peer set, July 2025 to July 2026, raising ~$112.8M, after excluding transactions below $500k. All performance figures are stated on a DAP basis; discount-to-market is a nominal pricing input and is stated separately.
| Stock | Date | Proceeds | Mkt cap | Raise % | Deal px | DAP px | Discount | 30D DAP | 90D DAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVL | 29 Jun 26 | $9.9M | $46.6M | 21.3% | $0.175 | $0.199 | -16.7% | — | — |
| KQI | 11 Jun 26 | $32.4M | $46.5M | 69.6% | $0.220 | $0.229 | -2.2% | -29.0% | — |
| AQC | 27 May 26 | $18.8M | $48.5M | 38.7% | $0.137 | $0.165 | -17.3% | -27.4% | — |
| AXM | 21 May 26 | $512k | $37.3M | 1.4% | $0.078 | $0.078 | 0.0% | -10.3% | — |
| GQ8 | 15 May 26 | $14.1M | $41.3M | 34.2% | $0.070 | $0.071 | -9.1% | -10.5% | — |
| KQI | 23 Mar 26 | $1.4M | $7.3M | 19.5% | $0.038 | $0.049 | -25.5% | +379.1% | +267.0% |
| BXR | 4 Feb 26 | $35.0M | $80.4M | 43.5% | $0.750 | $0.777 | -11.2% | -8.7% | -29.3% |
| FXU | 8 Jul 25 | $660k | $6.2M | 10.6% | $0.005 | $0.003 | -54.5% | +445.0% | +220.6% |
30d DAP / 90d DAP = 30-day / 90-day return measured against the diluted adjusted price. Deals that have not yet reached 90 days show no return. Discount = nominal discount to last close. KQI's 23 Mar 26 and FXU's 8 Jul 25 placements are flagged in the export under the >200% performance rule but have been checked and verified by Investair, and are retained here as valid data. Transactions below $500k in proceeds are excluded from this table and from the medians above; the 18-month success rate is a source-level aggregate and is not subject to that filter.
Recorded placements across the eight-name West African gold cohort, most recent first, on the same basis as the table above. Of these, only ODR's Mar-2026 raise has matured to a 90-day DAP return; the rest are still pending.
| Stock | Date | Proceeds | Mkt cap | Raise % | Deal px | DAP px | Discount | 30D DAP | 90D DAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMA | 13 Jul 26 | $51.8M | $267.7M | 19.4% | $0.300 | $0.341 | -10.4% | — | — |
| NK1 | 29 Jun 26 | $3.8M | $260.8M | 1.5% | $0.125 | $0.130 | -7.4% | — | — |
| MQK | 23 Jun 26 | $143k | $590.6M | 0.0% | $0.552 | $0.560 | -1.4% | — | — |
| HRM | 22 May 26 | $25.6M | $127.7M | 20.0% | $0.900 | $0.925 | -4.3% | -16.3% | — |
| OBG | 20 May 26 | $92.0M | $739.3M | 12.4% | $0.460 | $0.495 | -8.9% | -11.2% | — |
| NK1 | 8 May 26 | $56.2M | $208.8M | 26.9% | $0.125 | $0.129 | +25.0% | +8.6% | — |
| ODR | 23 Mar 26 | $28.8M | $212.0M | 13.6% | $0.600 | $0.596 | -1.6% | +6.6% | -11.0% |
RAISE % = proceeds ÷ market cap at deal date; DEAL PX = placement price; DAP PX = diluted adjusted price; DISCOUNT = nominal discount to last close (+ = premium); 30D DAP / 90D DAP = 30-day / 90-day return vs DAP (— = not yet matured). MQK's A$143k top-up is shown for completeness though below the A$500k floor. KTM's Nov-2025 placement predates this window and is covered in Sections 01 and 05.
Excluding transactions below $500k removes three deals and leaves eight, raising ~$112.8M. The set is bifurcated by size and pricing. The two largest raises, BXR at $35.0M and KQI at $32.4M, priced at -11.2% and -2.2%, demonstrating that size and tight pricing are not mutually exclusive where the story is credible. At the other end, FXU's July 2025 raise cleared at -54.5% and KQI's March raise at -25.5% off very small market capitalisations. Only three of the eight deals have reached 90 days. KQI's March placement returned +267.0%; it was flagged in the source export under the >200% performance rule, but checked and verified, and treated here as valid evidence. FXU's July 2025 raise returned +220.6% and has since been verified by Investair. The third matured deal is BXR, the largest raise in the set, at -29.3%. The pattern across the verified deals is that the two extremes performed in opposite directions: KQI priced cheap and small off a $7.3M market capitalisation and rewarded allottees heavily, while BXR priced tightly at scale and left them down. With the sub-$500k transactions excluded the median discount widens to -13.95%, confirming that the tightest pricing in the set sat with the smallest raises.
Source: Section 04 tables. * MQK's A$143k top-up is below the A$500k floor and is shown for completeness. Returns on a DAP basis.
Named broker performance across KTM's peer-set placements. Success rate is the share of that broker's matured deals with a positive 90-day DAP return.
| Broker | Deals | Proceeds | Avg discount | Success rate | Med 30D DAP | Med 90D DAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canaccord | 1 | $32.4M | -2.2% | — | -29.0% | — |
| Shaw and Partners | 1 | $9.9M | -16.7% | — | — | — |
| RBC Capital | 1 | $9.9M | -16.7% | — | — | — |
| Fosters Stockbroking | 1 | $9.9M | -16.7% | — | — | — |
| Westar Capital | 1 | $1.4M | -25.5% | 100% | +379.1% | +267.0% |
Ranked by deal count, then total proceeds. Deals without a matured 90-day DAP return show no success rate.
| Broker | Deals | Proceeds | Avg discount | Success rate | Med 30D DAP | Med 90D DAP | Last active |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Ocean | 2 | $79M | -4.6% | 100% | +20.8% | +142.1% | May 2026 |
| Canaccord | 2 | $67M | -6.7% | 0% | -18.9% | -29.3% | Jun 2026 |
| Argonaut | 2 | $45M | -9.5% | 50% | +15.7% | +16.2% | Feb 2026 |
| Euroz | 2 | $37M | -5.6% | 50% | -12.7% | -14.4% | Feb 2026 |
| Shaw and Partners | 2 | $18M | -17.0% | 0% | +0.8% | -43.5% | Jun 2026 |
KTM's own November 2025 placement was run by Argonaut Limited and Taylor Collison, raising $10.0M at $0.180 (-7.7% discount) for a 90-day DAP return of +61.65%, above Argonaut's +16.2% rolling 12-month median.
Blue Ocean leads on every dimension that matters to an issuer: the largest proceeds ($79M), the tightest average discount at -4.6%, a 100% success rate, and a median DAP return of +142.1%, though that success rate rests on a single matured deal. Canaccord ranks second on proceeds at $67M and prices tightly (-6.7%), but has a 0% success rate and a median DAP return of -29.3%: the pattern of a house that can clear size at a good headline price without the aftermarket holding. Shaw and Partners is the weakest pairing in the table: the widest average discount at -17.0%, a 0% success rate and -43.5% median return on the smallest proceeds. Argonaut and Euroz sit mid-table at 50% success rates, separated by aftermarket outcome (+16.2% versus -14.4%); Argonaut also ran KTM's own November 2025 raise. On this dataset Blue Ocean is the standout candidate for mandate consideration; the caveat the board should hold is sample size, as each broker in the table has run only two deals.
Source: Section 05b. Average discount and median 90-day DAP return. Each broker has run two deals; treat as a small sample.
Investair reviewed the placement database for K1G, MQK, HRM, ODR, KMA, OBG and NK1 over the rolling 12 months to 22 July 2026. Each named broker receives credit for the full deal where it acted as joint lead manager, bookrunner or co-manager, consistent with the report methodology.
| Broker | Deals | Proceeds | Med. discount | Success rate | Med. 30D DAP | Med. 90D DAP | Last active |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canaccord | 5 | $236.3m | -4.3% | 100% | -3.3% | +22.2% | Jun 2026 |
| Argonaut | 5 | $207.0m | -8.9% | 100% | +11.6% | +27.5% | Jun 2026 |
| Tamesis Partners | 4 | $177.0m | -8.2% | 100% | +8.6% | +40.3% | Jun 2026 |
| Sternship Advisers | 1 | $125.7m | -1.2% | 100% | -15.3% | +4.1% | Oct 2025 |
| Wallabi Group | 1 | $125.7m | -1.2% | 100% | -15.3% | +4.1% | Oct 2025 |
| Stifel | 1 | $92.0m | -8.9% | — | -11.2% | — | May 2026 |
| Blackwood Capital | 1 | $25.6m | -4.3% | — | -16.3% | — | May 2026 |
| SCP Resource Finance | 1 | $25.6m | -4.3% | — | -16.3% | — | May 2026 |
Success rate is based only on deals that have reached a mature 90-day DAP measurement. The 100% readings for several brokers therefore rest on only one or two mature transactions and should not be interpreted as a large sample.
| Company | Date | Proceeds | Broker activity | Discount / premium | 30D DAP | 90D DAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK1 | 29 Jun 2026 | $3.8m | Canaccord, Argonaut, Tamesis | -7.4% | — | — |
| NK1 | 8 May 2026 | $56.2m act. | Canaccord, Argonaut, Tamesis | +25.0% prem. | +8.6% | — |
| NK1 | 28 Jul 2025 | $25.0m | Canaccord, Argonaut, Tamesis | -10.7% | +30.8% | +40.3% |
| HRM | 22 May 2026 | $25.6m act. | Canaccord, SCP Resource Finance, Blackwood | -4.3% | -16.3% | — |
| KMA | 10 Oct 2025 | $125.7m act. | Sternship, Canaccord, Wallabi | -1.2% | -15.3% | +4.1% |
| OBG | 20 May 2026 | $92.0m | Argonaut, Tamesis, Stifel | -8.9% | -11.2% | — |
| OBG | 20 Aug 2025 | $30.0m | Argonaut | -11.8% | +14.7% | +14.7% |
Proceeds "act." = actual amount where reported. Discount = nominal discount to last close (+ = premium); 30d / 90d DAP = 30-day / 90-day return vs diluted adjusted price (— = not yet matured). Broker activity credits all named joint lead managers, bookrunners and co-managers per 3B / announcement disclosure.
Source: Section 05c. Stifel, Blackwood Capital and SCP Resource Finance omitted: no matured 90-day deal.
Investair monitors ASX Appendix 3X / 604 / 603 notices across KTM's peer set. Ten notices were recorded in the current cycle, 9–21 July 2026.
| ASX | Date | Party | Event | From | To | Change | Est. value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORY | 21 Jul | Forrestania Resources | INCREASE | 39.87% | 41.45% | +1.58 | $23.4M |
| AXM | 17 Jul | Tribeca Investment Partners | CEASE | — | 0% | — | — |
| AQC | 16 Jul | New South Resources | CEASE | — | 0% | — | — |
| ORY | 16 Jul | Forrestania Resources | INCREASE | 38.32% | 39.87% | +1.55 | $22.5M |
| ORY | 14 Jul | Forrestania Resources | INCREASE | 37.23% | 38.32% | +1.09 | $21.6M |
| HVR | 13 Jul | Matthew Norman Bull | NEW ENTRY | — | 8.67% | +8.67 | $1.6M |
| ORY | 13 Jul | Forrestania Resources | INCREASE | 35.06% | 37.23% | +2.17 | $21.0M |
| IVL | 12 Jul | DGR Global | NEW ENTRY | — | 10.00% | +10.00 | $5.3M |
| BQR | 9 Jul | Peter Romeo Gianni | CEASE | — | 0% | — | — |
| BQR | 9 Jul | Westgold Resources | NEW ENTRY | — | 19.90% | +19.90 | $3.9M |
Est. value = notice-date voting power applied to latest market capitalisation. No prime-broker clause was detected on any notice in this cycle.
| Month | New entries | Increases | Decreases / exits | Net | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | 5 | 9 | 22 | -8 | Net selling |
| Mar 2026 | 4 | 14 | 21 | -3 | Net selling |
| Apr 2026 | 11 | 1 | 2 | +10 | Accelerating |
| May 2026 | 8 | 5 | 11 | +2 | Building |
| Jun 2026 | 3 | 7 | 4 | +6 | Accelerating |
| Jul 2026 | 13 | 11 | 21 | +3 | Accelerating |
The peer register turned in April and has stayed turned. After net selling of -8 in February and -3 in March, the last four consecutive months have all recorded net accumulation, +10, +2, +6 and +3, for a cumulative net of +21. July was the busiest month of the six by gross notice count (45 movements), indicating active repositioning rather than passive drift. The dominant single story is Forrestania Resources at Orrery Minerals, which lifted from 35.06% to 41.45% across four notices in nine days, a corporate-style accumulation now worth ~$23.4M. Three new substantial holders entered the peer set in July: Westgold at Belmora (19.90%), DGR Global at Ironvale (10.00%) and a private holder at Haverton (8.67%), against three cessations. For an issuer contemplating a raise, the relevant read is that named institutional and corporate capital is actively building positions in this peer group.
Most recent substantial-shareholder movement identified for each name in the eight-name West African gold jurisdiction peer set, from ASX Appendix 3X / 604 / 603 notices, presented on the same basis as the sector-peer table above.
Most recent notice per company from ASX substantial-shareholder filings (Appendix 3X / 604 / 603); one row per name. "Ceased to be substantial" = disclosed holding fell below the 5% notification threshold. Percentages are voting power at the notice date; share counts as disclosed. West African cohort = K1G, MQK, HRM, ODR, KMA, OBG, NK1.
Source: Section 06 net institutional activity table. Notice counts. Net = entries + increases − decreases/exits.
90-day price performance to 21 July 2026 across KTM's gold sub-industry peer set (26 names), ranked on a liquidity-adjusted risk basis. KTM ranks 3rd.
| Rank | ASX | Company | Mkt cap | 90D return | Avg daily liq. |
|---|
Rank is by 90-day liquidity-adjusted return within sub-industry, not by raw return. Remaining gold peers ranked 13–26: FXU, NQO, GQM, AQM, HQR, RQC, SQM, GQ8, MQH, BQR, IVL, AQC, ADQ, BXR, all with negative 90-day returns, ranging -16.7% to -51.8%.
90-day price, return and liquidity for the eight-name West African gold cohort (indicative), ranked on the same liquidity-adjusted basis as the sub-industry table above. Within this cohort KTM ranks 1st and is the only name with a positive 90-day return.
| Rank | ASX | Company | Price | 90D return | Avg daily liq. |
|---|
Indicative only. Prices and 90-day returns to 21 Jul 2026; avg daily liquidity in A$ traded per day (90-day mean). K1G market data is stale (last mark 1 May 2026) and shown as n/a. MQK and OBG are the most liquid names (>$1m/day); KTM trades ~$114k/day. West African cohort = KTM, NK1, OBG, MQK, ODR, HRM, KMA, K1G.
KTM's +11.1% over 90 days places it 3rd of 26 gold peers on a liquidity-adjusted basis, behind Orrery Minerals (+29.0%) and QB Metals (+20.0%). The relevant context is the breadth of the drawdown around it: only 6 of 26 gold peers posted a positive 90-day return, and the bottom of the table runs to -51.8% at Belmora. KTM also carries the strongest average daily liquidity of any peer in the top six (113,783 versus a top-six average near 60,000), which materially improves the executability of a book. Outperformance plus liquidity is the pairing that a broker can actually market; on this evidence KTM approaches the market from a position of relative strength within its sector.
Source: Section 07. Rank is liquidity-adjusted. Kanbara Gold (K1G) omitted: market data stale (n/a).
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All figures in this report are drawn from the Investair dataset as at 22 July 2026 (market data to 21 July 2026). Performance is stated on a DAP (diluted adjusted price) basis; nominal discount-to-last-close is reported separately as a pricing input. Where a field is absent from source, the section is retained and marked Awaiting Data rather than estimated.
This is a sample report. Kestrel Minerals and its figures are illustrative, prepared to show the format of an Investair Company Intelligence Report.
Produced by Investair Pty Ltd. ECM data sourced from publicly available ASX announcements. SSH data sourced from ASX Appendix 3X / 604 / 603 notices. Nothing in this report constitutes financial product advice. Investair Pty Ltd does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence.